Report warns of AI’s impact on non-college grads’ careers
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By
Chris Teale
Research from the Brookings Institution warned that millions are in jobs that have traditionally allowed them to build skills and advance, but AI is eroding that upward mobility.
Much of the focus on artificial intelligence’s impact on the workforce has been on its implications for college graduates. But a new report warned that its effects on those in jobs that don’t require a college degree could be just as dramatic.
Researchers at the Brookings Institution warned last week that AI threatens to disrupt the 70 million people who it describes as “Skilled Through Alternative Routes,” known as STARs. Of those, 15.6 million work in jobs highly exposed to AI — including clerical roles, customer service positions and the like. And of that 15.6 million, researchers said there are around 11 million people employed in what they termed “Gateway” roles, which have traditionally allowed workers to build skills and then transition into higher-wage jobs as they gain experience.
AI is poised to erode some of the career pathways to transition to that higher-paying work for people without a four-year college degree. Brookings warned that as those pathways disappear, workers are at risk of losing their current jobs and being unable to find future opportunities for advancement, say into sales or human resources roles. Meanwhile, employers suffer as they are not able to develop talent.
“There's a lot to be sorted out as we think about how AI flows through the labor market,” said Mark Muro, a senior fellow at Brookings Metro and a co-author of the report. “But there are few areas of greater importance, I think, than this one.”
As with other Brookings research on the impact of AI on jobs and employment, there is regional variance in where those changes are expected to be biggest. The most exposed pathways are in administrative, clerical and customer occupations in the Sun Belt and Northeast, researchers found, in addition to state capitals and cities and towns dominated by universities.
That will put the onus on local governments to invest in workforce development and other efforts to ensure their residents are not left behind.
“The further anyone gets away from a college experience, the less relevant the specific course material is, and we're entering a world where there's a new curriculum for all of us,” said Justin Heck, senior director of research and data production at nonprofit Opportunity@Work and a report co-author. “Over the next 30 years, we're all going to be needing to learn a lot of new things. The question is, are we willing to trust that lots of folks have potential, and lots of folks can be learning these skills? Including a broader set of workers in this moment of change is going to be key.”
Heck said local governments and employers also should be willing to experiment with pilot projects and other initiatives in this space and share what works, as well as what hasn’t worked.
“I understand why folks don't want to share their failures, but those are such good learning moments,” he said. “There's something of a commitment to us trying things and finding out what works, what scales and sharing that with peer networks, and getting folks in rooms together.”
The report found that some occupations, like construction and health care, are well insulated from the onset of AI as they are still heavily reliant on the human touch. But there could be a lot of uncertainty ahead, as 23 million people who fall into the STAR category have low adaptive capacity, meaning they may have a limited ability to weather job displacement. It all creates a lot of uncertainty in the labor market, especially in the future.
“Exposure does not necessarily mean automation,” Heck said. “Well, it can mean that. Worst case scenario, a lot of these key roles get automated, and we see workers stranded in low-wage work, and employers fighting to find the workers they need for higher-wage roles.”
However, the report emphasized that it is still early in the process, and it is incumbent on policymakers and employers to figure out what happens next.
“We have so many choices ahead of us that can determine the impact of AI, and we can make better choices,” Heck said. “That is still on the table, and anyone who says otherwise just doesn't want to take responsibility. It's still early days.”