Why Are the States Reopening?

A sign in New York City promoting social distancing.

A sign in New York City promoting social distancing. Shutterstock

 

Connecting state and local government leaders

COMMENTARY | The public overwhelmingly supports continued social-distancing measures.

As of last week, all 50 states have begun reopening to some degree from counter-pandemic measures.

That’s a remarkable milestone, and a big shift in policy in a short period of time. It might be cause for celebration if it were clearly rooted in either public opinion or public-health data. But the reopening comes as case numbers in many parts of the country continue to rise, experts warn of further danger, and a significant majority of the country remains in favor of social-distancing measures. It appears that a small slice of the population, led by the president of the United States, has managed to drive this momentous and risky move.

Health data don’t suggest that the U.S. is at the end of the pandemic. Growth in cases throughout the United States overall has slowed, but it continues to expand in some places. Public-health experts have warned that reopening could drive a resurgence in cases. Much about COVID-19 is unclear, and we don’t know for certain that reopening will drive new cases. Georgia, for example, hasn’t seen a surge since dropping restrictions, though experts warn that it’s too soon for the data to say much. Anthony Fauci has said that a second wave of the disease later this year is “inevitable.”

Yet states led by governors of both parties have moved forward on plans to reopen, even those where the COVID-19 caseload continues to rise. Take North Carolina, where Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, announced a new phase of opening this week—even though the number of coronavirus diagnoses in the state is still increasing. The Republican leader in the state Senate, who has been a proponent of reopening, praised the move.

“I’m glad the governor has responded to the calls of senators, small-business owners, and unemployed workers to let them get back to work,” state Senator Phil Berger said in a statement. But he added: “It seems strange that it was unsafe to reopen last week, but it’s safe to reopen now with worse numbers.” Berger meant this as a question about why Cooper wasn’t moving faster, but it is perhaps a stronger argument in the opposite direction: Why is he moving at all?

As the White House has pointed out, sometimes with great frustration, policy makers have to balance concerns that public-health officials don’t, including the economy and public opinion. Yet neither of these makes an especially strong case for reopening.

President Donald Trump has issued strong calls for reopening, saying that doing so will revive an economy knocked flat by the pandemic. The problem is that there’s not much evidence that simply dropping restrictions will save the economy, even as it does create health risks. States that have loosened the rules haven’t seen economic activity bounce back to anywhere near pre-crisis levels.

At a Senate hearing this week, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin echoed his boss’s line, saying there’s a danger of permanent damage to the economy if businesses don’t reopen now. But Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell differed from Mnuchin, saying that economic and public-health concerns can’t be separated. “The No. 1 thing, of course, is people believing that it’s safe to go back to work so they can go out,” he said. “That’s what it will take for people to regain confidence.”

Politicians seldom take major, risky steps without knowing that public opinion is behind them, and that makes the decisions by governors to reopen all the stranger. As I have written, public opinion is astonishingly united behind social-distancing measures. Across party lines and geographic regions, Americans think that caution is prudent and restrictions are smart. They believe wearing a face mask is more about public health than personal choice. And they hold these views even, or especially, when it means personal sacrifice.

It is true that the partisan divide on anti-coronavirus measures has been growing in recent days. Yet what this polling suggests is not the typical Democrats-versus-Republicans split, but instead a difference of opinion within the Republican Party. And even then, governors of both parties are, in many specific instances, embracing a minority opinion within their party.

The haste to reopen, in defiance of medical expertise, economic data, and public opinion, is thus peculiar. The most obvious possibility is that it is a testament to the power of the presidential bully pulpit and intense media coverage. Earlier this month, I wrote that the unity behind social distancing “should serve as a warning to governors and a rebuke to the press. The protests in state capitols have gained extensive attention, but—despite the vocal support of the president—the activists remain part of a fringe movement.”

That warning was unheeded. Trump continues to beat the drum, and the protests continue to garner attention outside their numbers. But that’s not a static situation. Extensive coverage of both can help shift public opinion—turning what is not an especially partisan situation into a polarized one, a process that’s already in progress. And as the split widens, more Republicans are likely to take the partisan cue they’re receiving and turn against closures and distancing, in a feedback loop.

Perhaps the experts are wrong, and there won’t be a significant resurgence in cases. But if they are right, this shift will make it harder for governors and localities to reimpose safety measures that have become a partisan litmus test. On Thursday, during a visit to Michigan, Trump was asked about the prospect of a second wave, and he allowed that it might happen but said mass closures wouldn’t be necessary.

“We’re not going to close the country; we’re going to put out the fires,” he said. “Whether it’s an ember or a flame, we’re going to put it out. But we’re not closing our country.”

One of the lessons of the past few years, in firefighting and politics alike, is that once the conflagration has been set, it doesn’t always behave the way people want or expect.

We want to hear what you think about this article. Submit a letter to the editor or write to letters@theatlantic.com.v

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.